The Philippines is once again at the center of political turmoil following the impeachment complaint against Vice President Sara Duterte. With the House of Representatives overwhelmingly voting in favor of her impeachment, the case is now set to move to the Senate, where the trial could begin as early as June 2025—right after the newly elected lawmakers assume office.
This impeachment saga is expected to have a significant impact on the upcoming May 2025 midterm elections, with both pro-Duterte and opposition forces vying for dominance. The political ramifications could reshape the legislative landscape, influence voter sentiments, and potentially redefine the future of the Duterte political dynasty.
The Impeachment Charges and Political Divide
The impeachment complaint accuses Duterte of corruption, failing to defend Philippine sovereignty in the South China Sea, and, most notably, allegedly plotting to assassinate President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. While the charges are serious, many of Duterte’s supporters claim they are politically motivated, aimed at weakening her influence in the government and stifling her political ambitions for 2028.
With 215 lawmakers voting in favor of impeachment, this decision is seen as a direct challenge to Duterte’s stronghold over many provinces, particularly in Mindanao. However, the political costs for those who voted ‘Yes’ remain uncertain, especially considering the Duterte family’s deep-rooted support base.
Electoral Implications: A Political Gamble?
The upcoming midterm elections will serve as a referendum on Duterte’s leadership and the actions of the House of Representatives. Many of the lawmakers who supported the impeachment may face backlash from pro-Duterte voters, particularly in regions where the Duterte brand remains popular. Historically, the Dutertes have commanded loyalty from a large segment of the electorate, who view them as champions of strong governance and regional autonomy.
The primary concern for the 215 congressmen who voted in favor of impeachment is whether their constituencies will punish them at the polls. If pro-Duterte candidates capitalize on the narrative of a political conspiracy, they could rally support and win back seats in Congress and the Senate. On the other hand, if the opposition successfully frames the impeachment as an accountability measure rather than a political maneuver, it could weaken Duterte’s grip on her supporters.
The Senate Trial: A Different Battlefield
If the Senate trial pushes through, it will be conducted under a new set of senators elected in May. The composition of the Senate will be crucial in determining whether Duterte will be removed from office or acquitted.
A Senate conviction would require a two-thirds majority, meaning at least 16 out of 24 senators must vote to remove her. If the elections bring in more pro-Duterte senators, her impeachment trial could end in acquittal, further solidifying her political influence and potentially positioning her as a major contender for the 2028 presidential race. However, if anti-Duterte forces gain more seats, the trial could lead to her removal, effectively ending her political career and altering the trajectory of Philippine politics.
A Divided Nation Heading into Elections
The impeachment case has deepened the political divide in the country. While Marcos Jr. has downplayed the significance of the impeachment, his administration’s allies in Congress have made bold moves against Duterte. The question remains: Will the voters side with the President’s allies or remain loyal to the Duterte brand?
The May 2025 elections will serve as a litmus test for the strength of the Duterte political machinery. If pro-Duterte candidates win key legislative positions, it could signal that the impeachment move was a miscalculation by the ruling party. However, if the opposition gains ground, it may mark the beginning of a decline in Duterte’s political dominance.
A High-Stakes Election
With the impeachment trial potentially starting under a new Congress and Senate, the balance of power in the Philippine government is at stake. The lawmakers who voted for Duterte’s impeachment face an uncertain political future, as pro-Duterte voters may seek to unseat them. Meanwhile, the Marcos administration and its allies must navigate the consequences of this high-risk political maneuver.
The midterm elections and the Senate trial will not just determine Sara Duterte’s fate but will also shape the future of Philippine politics. The next few months will be crucial in deciding whether the Duterte brand remains a dominant force or if this impeachment marks the beginning of its decline.
As the nation watches closely, one thing is certain: The battle for power in the Philippines is far from over.
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