Tropical Storm Odette is Coming!

THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION OUTSIDE THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR) INTENSIFIES INTO TROPICAL STORM “RAI”.

Location of Center (4:00 PM): The center of the Tropical Storm “RAI” was estimated based on all available data at 1,630 km East of Mindanao (5.7°N, 140.5°E) (outside the PAR) 

Intensity: Maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the center, gustiness up to 80 km/h, and central pressure of 998 hPa 

Present Movement: West northwestward at 20 km/h 

GENERAL OUTLOOK FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD

• The tropical storm is forecast to move west northwestward and will likely enter the PAR region as a severe tropical storm tomorrow (14 December) evening. Once inside PAR, the domestic name “ODETTE” will be assigned to this tropical cyclone. The west northwestward movement is forecast to continue until Wednesday (15 December) morning or afternoon. Afterwards, the tropical cyclone will turn westward and may make landfall in the vicinity of Caraga or Eastern Visayas by Thursday (16 December) afternoon or evening.

• “RAI” intensified into tropical storm at 2:00 PM today. This tropical cyclone is forecast to gradually intensify within the forecast period and may reach typhoon category by Wednesday. A peak intensity of around 155 km/h may be reached prior to landfall.

• Current track and intensity forecast shows that there is a high likelihood that Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals will be hoisted for Visayas, large portions of Mindanao, and several provinces in Southern Luzon due to the threat of strong to typhoon-force winds. The highest possible wind signal that may be hoisted is TCWS #3. Localities situated in the eastern portions of Visayas and Mindanao may be placed under TCWS #1 as early as tomorrow afternoon or evening.

• The passage of this tropical cyclone over the central portion of the archipelago may bring heavy rainfall over Visayas, large portions of Mindanao, and several provinces in Southern Luzon. Coastal inundation due to high waves near the coast and storm surge are also possible for low-lying localities near and along the path of the typhoon. Residents over the northern and eastern portions of Northern Luzon and the eastern portion of Central Luzon are also advised to monitor for updates regarding possible heavy rainfall which may occur in relation to the behavior of the shear line during and after the passage of this tropical cyclone.

Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to continue monitoring for updates related to this tropical cyclone.

Unless an intermediate advisory or initial tropical cyclone bulletin is released, the next tropical cyclone advisory will be issued at 11:00 PM today.

-----------------------

UPDATE: TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5

Tropical Storm “RAI”

Issued at 11:00 PM, 13 December 2021

Valid for broadcast until the next advisory at 11:00 AM tomorrow.

“RAI” MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH WHILE MOVING WEST NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS PALAU.

Location of Center (10:00 PM):  

The center of the Tropical Storm “RAI” was estimated based on all available data at 1,585 km East of Mindanao (5.8°N, 139.6°E) (outside the PAR) 

Intensity: 

Maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the center, gustiness up to 80 km/h, and central pressure of 998 hPa 

Present Movement: 

West northwestward at 20 km/h 

GENERAL OUTLOOK FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD

• Tropical Storm “RAI” is forecast to move west northwestward while gradually intensifying and enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as a severe tropical storm tomorrow evening. Once inside PAR, the domestic name “ODETTE” will be assigned to this tropical cyclone. “RAI” will begin moving westward over the Philippine Sea on Wednesday morning and may make landfall in the vicinity of Caraga or Eastern Visayas by Thursday (16 December) afternoon or evening. While inside the PAR, favorable atmospheric conditions will favor sustained intensification prior to landfall. This tropical cyclone is forecast to reach typhoon category on Wednesday. A pre-landfall peak intensity of around 155 km/h may be reached by Thursday afternoon.

• There is a high likelihood that Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals will be hoisted for Visayas, large portions of Mindanao, and several provinces in Southern Luzon due to the threat of strong to typhoon-force winds associated with the passage of “RAI”. The highest possible wind signal that may be hoisted is TCWS #3. Localities situated in the eastern portions of Visayas and Mindanao may be placed under TCWS #1 as early as tomorrow afternoon or evening.

• The passage of this tropical cyclone over the central portion of the archipelago may bring heavy to torrential rainfall over Visayas, Mindanao, and several provinces in Southern Luzon, which may bring possible flooding and rain-induced landslides. Coastal inundation due to high waves near the coast and storm surge are also possible for low-lying localities near and along the path of the typhoon. Residents over the northern and eastern portions of Northern Luzon and the eastern portion of Central Luzon are also advised to monitor for updates regarding possible heavy rainfall which may occur in relation to the behavior of the shear line during and after the passage of this tropical cyclone.

• The passage of “RAI” will bring rough to high seas (reaching very high or phenomenal in open sea near the center of the cyclone) over the seaboards of Southern Luzon and Visayas, and the northern, eastern, and western seaboards of Mindanao. Rough to high seas are also possible for the seaboards of Northern and Central Luzon. Sea travel is risky for all types of seacrafts over these waters. 

• Moderate to rough seas are also possible for the remaining seaboards of Mindanao during the passage. Sea travel is risky over these waters for small seacrafts.

Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to continue monitoring for updates related to this tropical cyclone.

Unless an intermediate advisory or initial tropical cyclone bulletin is released, the next tropical cyclone advisory will be issued at 11:00 AM tomorrow.