"AURING" WEAKENS INTO TROPICAL STORM AND IS NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE WESTWARD.

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #7

FOR: TROPICAL STORM "#AuringPH" (DUJUAN)

TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING

ISSUED AT 5:00 PM, 19 February 2021

(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today)

"AURING" WEAKENS INTO TROPICAL STORM AND IS NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE WESTWARD.

Hazards affecting land areas:

Heavy Rainfall: 

• Until tonight, light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Caraga, Camiguin, Misamis Oriental, Bukidnon, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, and Davao del Norte.

• Tomorrow, moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Caraga, Camiguin, Misamis Oriental, Bukidnon, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, and Davao del Norte. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Eastern and Central Visayas, the rest of Northern Mindanao, Lanao del Sur, Cotabato, and Davao City.

• On Sunday, moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate, Visayas, Caraga, Camiguin, Misamis Oriental, and Bukidnon. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Romblon, the rest of Northern Mindanao, Lanao del Sur, Cotabato, Davao City, Davao del Norte, Davao de Oro, and Davao Oriental.

• Under these conditions, scattered to widespread flooding (including flash floods) and rain-induced landslides are likely during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps. Adjacent or nearby areas may also experience flooding in the absence of such rainfall occurrence due to surface runoff or swelling of river channels. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings while the Hydrometeorology Division and River Basin Flood Forecasting and Warning Centers may issue General Flood Advisories and Basin Flood Bulletins as appropriate.

Strong Winds: 

• The surge of the Northeast Monsoon is already bringing strong breeze to near-gale conditions with occasionally higher gusts over Northern Luzon and the eastern sections of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao, especially in coastal and mountainous areas. The affected localities include those currently under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal #1. However, strong breeze to near-gale conditions directly associated with “AURING” will likely begin to prevail over the wind signal areas on Saturday at the earliest.

• More localities in Caraga and Davao Region may be placed under TCWS #1 in the next bulletin. Based on current meteorological data, the highest level of wind signal that will be issued throughout the passage of “AURING” is TCWS #2 (for potentially damaging gale-force to storm-force winds).

Hazards affecting coastal waters:

• In the next 24 hours, rough to high seas (3.0 to 7.0 m) will be experienced over the eastern seaboard of Mindanao. Rough to very rough seas are also expected over the seaboards of Luzon, Visayas, and the northern seaboard of Mindanao (2.8 to 5.0 m). Sea travel is risky for all types of sea vessels over these waters.

• Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 3.0 m) will be experienced over the rest of the seaboards of the country. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.

Track and intensity outlook:

• Tropical Storm “AURING” will move generally westward over the next 12 hours before turning northwestward tomorrow morning while accelerating. It is forecast to make landfall over the eastern coast of Caraga Region on Sunday (21 February) morning. On the forecast track, the storm will likely follow a generally northwestward path as it traverses Caraga Region, Visayas, and MIMAROPA on Sunday and Monday.

• “AURING” weakened into Tropical Storm at 2:00 PM today

• Possible re-intensification into Severe Tropical Storm is likely prior to landfall. However, further intensification into a typhoon within the forecast period remains less likely as of this time. “AURING” will likely weaken while crossing the archipelago due to significant terrain interaction and dry air intrusion from the Northeast Monsoon.

Location of eye/center At 4:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Storm "AURING" was estimated based on all available data at 405 km East Southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur (6.9°N, 129.7°E).

• Strength Maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 105 km/h.
• Movement Moving Westward at 15 km/h.

Forecast Positions 

•24 Hour (Tomorrow afternoon): 290 km East Southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur (7.4°N, 128.8°E)

•48 Hour (Sunday afternoon): In the vicinity of Hilongos, Leyte (10.4°N, 124.8°E)

•72 Hour (Monday afternoon): 140 km Northwest of Coron, Palawan (13.0°N, 119.4°E)

•96 Hour (Tuesday afternoon): 415 km West of Subic, Zambales (14.1°N, 116.5°E)

•120 Hour (Wednesday afternoon): 490 km West of Iba, Zambales (15.1°N, 115.4°E)

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL

TCWS #1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)

• Visayas

Southern Leyte and the southeastern portion of Eastern Samar (Guiuan including Homonhon Island)

• Mindanao 

Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, Davao del Norte, Davao City, Camiguin, the eastern portion of Misamis Oriental (Balingasag, Balingoan, Binuangan, Claveria, Gingoog City, Jasaan, Kinoguitan, Lagonglong, Magsaysay, Medina, Salay, Sugbongcogon, Tagoloan, Talisayan, Villanueva), and the eastern portion of Bukidnon (Cabanglasan, Impasug-ong, Lantapan, Malaybalay City, Malitbog, Manolo Fortich, Maramag, Quezon, San Fernando, Sumilao, Valencia City)

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.